Understanding soaring coronavirus cases and the effect of contagion policies in the UK

Duran-Olivencia, M. A.; Kalliadasis, S.

The number of new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections is frantically rising in almost every country of the EU. The phenomenological explanation offered is a new mutation of the virus, first identified in the UK. We use publicly available data in combination with a controlled SIR model, which captures the effects of preventive measures on the active cases, to show that the current wave of infections is consistent with a single transmission rate. This suggests that the new SARS-CoV-2 variant is as transmissible as previous strains. Our findings indicate that the relaxation of preventive measures is closely related with the ongoing surge in cases. We simulate the effects of new restrictions and vaccination campaigns in 2021, demonstrating that lockdown policies are not fully effective to flatten the curve. For effective mitigation, it is critical that the public keeps on high alert until vaccination reaches a critical threshold.