SEIR Transmission dynamics model of 2019 nCoV coronavirus with considering the weak infectious ability and changes in latency duration

Pengpeng Shi; Shengli Cao; Peihua Feng

In previous studies on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, the epidemic was in the early stages of development and lacked sufficient raw data, so it was difficult to accurately predict the development of the 2 / 5 epidemic. In addition, the shortcomings of the transmission dynamic model itself have also become the direct cause of limiting its prediction effect. Latent patients are not easy to be effectively quarantined, and recent evidence shows that latent patients have a strong infectious ability, but the existing epidemic transmission dynamic models [5] [6] [7] [8] often ignore the transmission risks caused by patients in the latent period. In addition, researchers have found that estimates of the average latency of 2019-nCoV are also changing. The incubation period was determined to be 7 days in January, and it was recently estimated to be 3 days, which means that 2019-nCoV infected people become more likely to develop symptoms.