Detectability of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection and rates of mortality from the novel coronavirus infection in different regions of the Russian Federation

Goldstein, Edward

Background: Laboratory diagnosis of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection combined with tracing/quarantine for contacts of infected individuals affects the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the levels of related mortality. Here, we examine the relation between detectability of SARS-CoV-2 infection (i.e. the proportion of detected COVID-19 cases among all cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population) and levels of mortality from COVID-19 for the 85 regions of the Russian Federation. Methods: Lower case-fatality ratio (CFR, the proportion of deaths among all detected COVID-19 cases) corresponds to higher detectability of the SARS-COV-2 infection. We used data from the Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) on the number of detected cases and the number of deaths from COVID-19 in the different regions of the Russian Federation to examine the correlation between case-fatality ratios and rates of mortality for COVID-19 in the 85 regions of the Russian Federation. Results: The correlation between case-fatality ratios and rates of mortality for COVID-19 per 100,000 on Sep. 17, 2020 in different regions of the Russian Federation is 0.68 (0.55,0.78). The region with both the highest COVID-19 mortality rate per 100,000 and the highest CFR (lowest detectability of SARS-CoV-2 infection) is the city of St. Petersburg. Conclusions: Detectability of SARS-CoV-2 infection is one of the factors that affects levels of mortality from COVID-19. Regions of the Russian Federation with relatively low detectability of SARS-CoV-2 infection (e.g. those regions for which case-fatality ratio is below the median value of 1.2% for the case-fatality ratio in different regions of the Russian Federation on Sep. 17, 2020 [3]) ought to increase testing for SARS-CoV-2 in order to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and diminish the related mortality.