Author: Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Aragon, Davi Casale; Nunes, AltacÃlio Aparecido
Title: Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea Cord-id: 8r30lsq8 Document date: 2020_8_26
ID: 8r30lsq8
Snippet: INTRODUCTION: Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data. RESULTS: The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model. CONCLUSIONS: P
Document: INTRODUCTION: Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data. RESULTS: The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model. CONCLUSIONS: Predictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution.
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