The impact of vaccination on the spread patterns of the COVID epidemic

Below, D.; Mairanowski, F.

A modified model of the epidemic under conditions of mass vaccination was developed. A comparison of the model results with statistical observations in Israel shows good agreement. Model calculations are performed on the efficacy of limiting the development of an epidemic by both lockdown and vaccination. Mass vaccination of the population is the most radical method of limiting the growth of the epidemic. The introduction of a lockdown cannot completely prevent the development of an epidemic. The likelihood of the emergence of new strains of the virus is assessed. Without vaccination, the probability of more than two new virus strains per year affecting the epidemic growth process is found to be about 60%. A controlled calculation was made of the effect of the timing of changes in lockdown conditions during the vaccination period on the development of the epidemic. It was particularly shown that the cancellation of the lockdown together with the start of vaccination did not reduce the maximum number of new infections. A controlling calculation was made of the effects of gradually cancelling lockdown. On the basis of these calculations, it is possible to assess the development of the epidemic in different variants of partial lockdown cancellation. Three dimensionless complexes, made up of the intensities of transmission, vaccination and lockdown restrictions, are found to determine the epidemic's development. The intensity of the coronavirus epidemic depends on climatic characteristics, in particular air temperature and the UV index. A relationship is given to estimate the influence of these factors on infection growth. The way forward for further development of the model is outlined. The immediate goal of modifying the model is to use it for each age group in the population and to find out the links between vaccination rates and the psychological state of the population, i.e. people's readiness for mass vaccination.