(un)masked Covid-19 Trends from Social Media

Singh, Asmit Kumar; Mehan, Paras; Sharma, Divyanshu; Pandey, Rohan; Sethi, Tavpritesh; Kumaraguru, Ponnurangam

BACKGROUND: The adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their surveillance is critical for detecting and stopping possible transmission routes of COVID-19. A study of the effects of these interventions in terms of adoption can help shape public health decisions. Also, the efficacy of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions can be affected by public behaviours in events such as election rallies, festivals, and protest events, as captured from social media. Social media analytics can offer crucial public health insights. Here, we examined mask use and mask fit in the United States, especially during the first large-scale public gathering post-pandemic, the Black Lives Matter (BLM). OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to analyze the utilization and fit of face masks and social distancing in the USA from social media and events of large physical gatherings through publicly available social media images from six cities and the BLM protests. METHODS: 2.04 million publicly available social media images were collected and analyzed from the six cities between February 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020. We used correlation tests to examine the relationships between the online mask usage trends and the COVID-19 cases. We looked for significant changes in mask-wearing patterns and group posting before and after important policy decisions. For BLM protests, we analyze 195,452 posts from New York and Minneapolis from May 25, 2020, to July 15, 2020. We looked at differences in adopting the preventive measures in the BLM protests through the mask-fit score. RESULTS: The average percentage of group pictures dropped from 8.05% to 4.65% post the lockdown week. New York City, Dallas, Seattle, New Orleans, Boston, and Minneapolis observed an increase of 5%, 7.4%, 7.4%, 6.5%, 5.6%, and 7.1% in mask wearing online, respectively, between February 2020 and May 2020. Boston and Minneapolis observed a significant increase of 3% and 7.4% mask-wearing after the mask mandates. A difference of 6.2% and 8.3% were found in the group pictures between BLM posts and Non-BLM posts for New York City and Minneapolis. In contrast, the difference between BLM and NON-BLM posts in the percentage of masked faces in group pictures was 29% and 20.1% for New York City and Minneapolis, respectively. Of the masked faces in protests, 35% wore the mask with a fit score greater than 80%. CONCLUSIONS: The study finds a significant drop in the group posting when the stay-at-home laws were applied and a significant increase in mask wearing for two of the three cities when the mask mandates were applied. Although a general positive trend towards mask-wearing and social distancing is observed, a high percentage of posts did not adhere to the guidelines. BLM-related posts were found to capture the lack of seriousness to safety measures through a high percentage of group pictures and low mask fit scores. Thus, the methodology used provides a directional indication of how government policies can be indirectly monitored through social media.