Detectability of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection and rates of mortality for COVID-19 in different regions of the Russian Federation

Goldstein, E.

Background: Laboratory diagnosis of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection combined with quarantine for contacts of infected individuals affects the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community and the levels of related mortality. Moreover, not all cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population are detected (laboratory diagnosed). Here, we examine the relation between detectability of SARS-CoV-2 infection (i.e. the percent of detected COVID-19 cases among all cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population) and levels of mortality for COVID-19 for the 85 different regions (federal subjects) of the Russian Federation. Methods: Lower case-fatality ratio (i.e. the ratio between the number of reported COVID-19 deaths and the number of diagnosed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population) corresponds to higher detectability of the SARS-COV-2 infection. We used data from the Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) on the number of detected COVID-19 cases and the number of deaths from COVID-19 in the 85 different regions of the Russian Federation to examine the correlation between case-fatality ratios and rates of mortality for COVID-19 in different regions of the Russian Federation. Results: The correlation between case-fatality ratios for cases/deaths reported by Sep. 17, 2020 and rates of mortality for COVID-19 per 100,000 for deaths reported by Sep. 17, 2020 in different regions of the Russian Federation is 0.68 (0.55,0.78), with the region with both the highest COVID-19 mortality rate per 100,000 and the highest case-fatality ratio being the city of St. Petersburg. Conclusions: Detectability of SARS-CoV-2 infection is one of the factors that affects the levels of mortality for COVID-19 in Russia. Regions of the Russian Federation with relatively low detectability of SARS-CoV-2 infection (e.g. those regions for which the case-fatality ratio is above the median value of 0.012 for the case-fatality ratio in different regions of the Russian Federation on Sep. 17, 2020 [3]) ought to increase testing for SARS-CoV-2 in order to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and diminish the related mortality.