Author: Samuel Soubeyrand; Melina Ribaud; Virgile Baudrot; Denis Allard; Denys Pommeret; Lionel Roques
Title: The current COVID-19 wave will likely be mitigated in the second-line European countries Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: dh3cgd48_18
Snippet: Forecast performance is measured as the proportion of true values Y 0 (τ + ∆), ∆ days after τ , that are in the corresponding forecast confidence intervals. The performance decreases with ∆ ( Figure 5 ). It must be noted however that when the cumulative number of deaths at τ in the focal country is relatively large (typically several hundreds), then about 80% of values Y 0 (τ + ∆) are within their confidence intervals up to 8 days aft.....
Document: Forecast performance is measured as the proportion of true values Y 0 (τ + ∆), ∆ days after τ , that are in the corresponding forecast confidence intervals. The performance decreases with ∆ ( Figure 5 ). It must be noted however that when the cumulative number of deaths at τ in the focal country is relatively large (typically several hundreds), then about 80% of values Y 0 (τ + ∆) are within their confidence intervals up to 8 days after τ .
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