The current COVID-19 wave will likely be mitigated in the second-line European countries

Samuel Soubeyrand; Melina Ribaud; Virgile Baudrot; Denis Allard; Denys Pommeret; Lionel Roques

The way we clustered the European countries in two groups, those in the front line and those in the second line based on the death rate (cumulative number of deaths divided by the population size), can be seen at first sight as a reason why the second-line countries generally tend to follow relatively mild mortality trajectories. However, Belgium and the UK for instance, could have been considered as second-line countries on March 15 (based on their death rates at that date). Unfortunately, one month later, they clearly experience relatively fast and severe mortality dynamics; see Supplementary Figure S1 . Apparently, up to now, the second-line countries as defined in our study will not follow the trajectories of Belgium and the UK.