Author: Jonathan Dushoff; Sang Woo Park
Title: Speed and strength of an epidemic intervention Document date: 2020_3_3
ID: fhqbw32a_41
Snippet: Responses to the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa and the recent COVID-19 outbreak show an over-emphasis on strength at the expense of speed: during the early phases of both outbreaks, many disease modelers tried to estimate R 0 but overlooked r. For example, only 1 out of 7 preliminary analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak that were published as preprints between January 23-26, 2020 reported the doubling time of an epidemic (Bedford et al., 2020; .....
Document: Responses to the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa and the recent COVID-19 outbreak show an over-emphasis on strength at the expense of speed: during the early phases of both outbreaks, many disease modelers tried to estimate R 0 but overlooked r. For example, only 1 out of 7 preliminary analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak that were published as preprints between January 23-26, 2020 reported the doubling time of an epidemic (Bedford et al., 2020; Imai et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2020; Majumder and Mandl, 2020; Read et al., 2020; Riou and Althaus, 2020; Zhao et al., 2020) . We suggest that infectious disease modelers should be aware of the complementarity of these two frameworks when analyzing disease outbreaks.
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