Author: Julien Riou; Anthony Hauser; Michel J Counotte; Christian L Althaus
Title: Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China, January and February 2020 Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: mrsya6wz_15
Snippet: For Hubei and northern Italy separately, we simultaneously fitted our model to the data sets described above ( Figure 1 ): (1) the number of confirmed cases by day of disease onset, (2) the number of deaths by day of occurrence, (3) the age distribution of all confirmed cases and (4) the age distribution of all reported deaths. All parameters were estimated from data except for the incubation period, the proportion of symptoms, the time from dise.....
Document: For Hubei and northern Italy separately, we simultaneously fitted our model to the data sets described above ( Figure 1 ): (1) the number of confirmed cases by day of disease onset, (2) the number of deaths by day of occurrence, (3) the age distribution of all confirmed cases and (4) the age distribution of all reported deaths. All parameters were estimated from data except for the incubation period, the proportion of symptoms, the time from disease onset to isolation and the time from disease onset to death. The fitted model was used to produce A PREPRINT -22 MARCH 2020 estimates (with uncertainty expressed as 95% credible intervals, CrI) of the total number of symptomatic and asymptomatic infections (corrected for preferential ascertainment) and of the total number of deaths (corrected for right-censoring), which were then transformed into adjusted estimates of the mortality (per cent of all cases, with 95% CrI). Besides parameter values and model structure, these estimates rely on the following additional assumptions:
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