On the main factors influencing COVID-19 spread and deaths in Mexico: A comparison between Phase I and II

Benita, F.; Gasca-Sanchez, F.

This article investigates the geographical spread of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths across municipalities in Mexico. It focuses on the spread dynamics between Phase I (from March 23th to May 31st, 2020) and II (from June 1st to August 22th, 2020) of the social distancing measures. It also examines municipal-level factors associated with cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths to understand the spatial determinants of the pandemic. The analysis of the geographic pattern of the pandemic via Space-Time Scan Statistics (SaTScan) revealed fast spread among municipalities. During Phase I, clusters of infections and deaths were mainly located at the center of the country, while in Phase II, these clusters dispersed to the rest of the country. The regression results from the Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Regression analysis suggested that income inequality, prevalence of obesity and diabetes, and concentration of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) are strongly positively associated to confirmed cases and deaths regardless of lockdown.