The demand for inpatient and ICU beds for COVID-19 in the US: lessons from Chinese cities

Ruoran Li; Caitlin Rivers; Qi Tan; Megan B Murray; Eric Toner; Marc Lipsitch

A confirmed COVID-19 case was considered severe if the patient experienced at least one of the following: dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, arterial blood oxygen partial pressure (PaO2) to oxygen concentration (FiO2) ratio <300mmHg, and/or a pneumonia patient showing significant progression of lesions infiltrating >50% of the lung field on chest imaging within 24-48 hours. A confirmed patient was considered to be critical if he/she experienced respiratory failure demanding invasive and/or non-invasive ventilation for respiratory support, septic shock, and/or with multiple organ dysfunction/failure demanding intensive care. 6, 7 These definitions have been more detailed with revisions of the Chinese diagnostic and treatment guidelines. In this study, we used the term serious patients to describe severe and critical patients collectively. We estimated the number of prevalent severe and critical cases cross-sectionally per day -allowing for the fact that patients could move in and out of these categories over the course of their disease.