The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak: a review of plausible scenarios of containment and mitigation for Mexico

Acuna-Zegarra, Manuel Adrian; Comas-Garcia, Andreu; Hernandez-Vargas, Esteban; Santana-Cibrian, Mario; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge X.

We present here several variants of a mathematical model to explore three main issues related to SARS-CoV-2 spread in scenarios similar to those present in Mexico and elsewhere in Latin America. We explore the consequences for travel inside a given region, in this case Mexico, particularly focusing on airplane transportation but attempting to give a gross approximation to terrestrial movement since this is the main form of population movement across geographical areas in the country; then we proceed to study the effect of behavioral changes required to lower transmission by lowering the contact rate and infection probability and lastly, we explore the consequences of disease spread in a population subject to social isolation.These models are not suitable for predictive purposes although some rough predictions can be extracted from them. They are presented as a tool that can serve to explore plausible scenarios of spread and impact, effectiveness and consequences of contention and mitigation policies. Given the early stage at which the epidemic is at the date of writing in Mexico, we hope these ideas can be helpful for the understanding of the importance of isolation, social distancing and screening of the general population.