Author: David Fisman; Amy Greer; Ashleigh Tuite
Title: Standardization and Age-Distribution of COVID-19: Implications for Variability in Case Fatality and Outbreak Identification Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 63hs1loe_16
Snippet: Given that COVID-19 is an emerging communicable disease and there is no pre-125 existing immunity in the population, attack rates should be similar across age 126 groups, or possibly even higher in children due to their more intense contact 127 structure (9). The elevated SMR in older age groups, combined with their higher 128 case fatality, is suggestive of increased case ascertainment in this group due to 129 greater clinical severity. Indeed, .....
Document: Given that COVID-19 is an emerging communicable disease and there is no pre-125 existing immunity in the population, attack rates should be similar across age 126 groups, or possibly even higher in children due to their more intense contact 127 structure (9). The elevated SMR in older age groups, combined with their higher 128 case fatality, is suggestive of increased case ascertainment in this group due to 129 greater clinical severity. Indeed, when active case finding has been performed 130 for pediatric cases, attack rates in younger groups have been similar to those in 131 the older age groups. We examined a series of "case studies" where incidence in 132 older individuals (age > 59) was assumed to be measured accurately, and 133 cumulative incidence in older individuals was then applied to younger age We evaluated the anticipated size, timing, and impact of an epidemic with 141 identical age-specific cumulative incidence and case fatality as observed in
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