Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation

Sanyi Tang; Biao Tang; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Fan Xia; Tangjuan Li; Sha He; Pengyu Ren; Xia Wang; Zhihang Peng; Yanni Xiao; Jianhong Wu

Because the distribution of the duration from importation of a primary imported case to infection of the secondary local case â„Ž is unknown, we initially set â„Ž be equal to and then estimate the effective reproduction number R(t), as shown in Figure 7 (C). It shows the effective reproduction number started to decline on January 23 rd , 2020 when the prediction and control strategies was strengthened, was less than 1 since around January 27 th , 2020, and stabilized at almost 0 recently, which means few new infections occur. In order to investigate the variation of the effective reproduction number with â„Ž varies, sensitivity analysis was carried out by changing the mean of â„Ž from 1 to 7 days, as shown in Figure 7 (D). It shows that the more the mean of â„Ž , the greater duration of the R(t) being greater than 1 and the earlier the R(t) exceeds the unity.