Selected article for: "cordon sanitaire and equivalent period"
Author: Billy J Quilty; Charlie Diamond; Yang Liu; Hamish Gibbs; Timothy W Russell; Christopher I Jarvis; Kiesha Prem; Carl A B Pearson; Samuel J Clifford; Stefan Flasche; Petra Klepac; Rosalind M Eggo; Mark Jit
Title: The effect of inter-city travel restrictions on geographical spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Wuhan, China
  • Document date: 2020_4_21
    • ID: 6kiv3qi5_23
    Snippet: Effect of the cordon sanitaire on mobility A gradual increase in the outflow from Wuhan in the weeks prior to the LNY was observed in both 2020 and 2019, exemplifying the Chunyun period ( Figure 1 ). Comparing the 23 days prior to the introduction of the cordon sanitaire in scenarios 1 and 2, we estimate daily outflow was 21.7% (95% CI 9.78% -33.6%) higher in 2020 than the equivalent period in 2019. A surge in volume in the 3 days preceding the c.....
    Document: Effect of the cordon sanitaire on mobility A gradual increase in the outflow from Wuhan in the weeks prior to the LNY was observed in both 2020 and 2019, exemplifying the Chunyun period ( Figure 1 ). Comparing the 23 days prior to the introduction of the cordon sanitaire in scenarios 1 and 2, we estimate daily outflow was 21.7% (95% CI 9.78% -33.6%) higher in 2020 than the equivalent period in 2019. A surge in volume in the 3 days preceding the cordon sanitaire can be seen in scenario 1 (2020), where an estimated 1.69 million left Wuhan, in line with other estimates (7) . A similar outflow immediately before the LNY observed in scenario 2 (2019) suggests the surge cannot necessarily be attributed to upcoming travel restrictions. This is further reflected by the 22.5% between-year increase during this 3-day window not being substantially greater than the average daily outflow increase.

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