Author: Kiesha Prem; Yang Liu; Tim Russell; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Nicholas Davies; Mark Jit; Petra Klepac
Title: The effect of control strategies that reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China Document date: 2020_3_12
ID: fn9b7adi_9
Snippet: Using parameters from the literature as presented in Table 1 , we simulated the outbreak. In particular, we assumed the average incubation period and average infectious period to be 6.4 days 15 and 3 or 7 days, respectively. Each simulation started with 200 or 2000 infectious individuals + , 16 with the rest of the population being in the susceptible state. We explored the uncertainty in the model by drawing + values uniformly from the 95% confid.....
Document: Using parameters from the literature as presented in Table 1 , we simulated the outbreak. In particular, we assumed the average incubation period and average infectious period to be 6.4 days 15 and 3 or 7 days, respectively. Each simulation started with 200 or 2000 infectious individuals + , 16 with the rest of the population being in the susceptible state. We explored the uncertainty in the model by drawing + values uniformly from the 95% confidence interval from the posterior of the + distribution from the semi-mechanistic model by Kucharski and colleagues 14 (Fig S3) .
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