Machine Learning Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 Polymerase Chain Reaction Results with Routine Blood Tests

Tschoellitsch, Thomas; Dünser, Martin; Böck, Carl; Schwarzbauer, Karin; Meier, Jens

OBJECTIVE: The diagnosis of COVID-19 is based on the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in respiratory secretions, blood, or stool. Currently, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is the most commonly used method to test for SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort analysis, we evaluated whether machine learning could exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection using routinely available laboratory values. A Random Forests algorithm with 1353 unique features was trained to predict the RT-PCR results. RESULTS: Out of 12,848 patients undergoing SARS-CoV-2 testing, routine blood tests were simultaneously performed in 1528 patients. The machine learning model could predict SARS-CoV-2 test results with an accuracy of 86% and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.90. CONCLUSION: Machine learning methods can reliably predict a negative SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test result using standard blood tests.