Author: Zoltan Neufeld; Hamid Khataee
Title: Targeted adaptive isolation strategy for Covid-19 pandemic Document date: 2020_3_31
ID: 80d9p4j8_17
Snippet: Let us consider the case when the low-risk population is ∼ 75 − 80% of the total, and when infected 3% is hospitalized, with 0.2% requiring intensive care [7] . Assuming that the intensive care capacity is around 10-20 per 100000, this allows for ∼ 5% infected at the peak of the epidemic in the low risk population, which corresponds to R 0 ∼ 1.4. By the end of the epidemic, this results in I total ∼ 0.6 within the low-risk population so.....
Document: Let us consider the case when the low-risk population is ∼ 75 − 80% of the total, and when infected 3% is hospitalized, with 0.2% requiring intensive care [7] . Assuming that the intensive care capacity is around 10-20 per 100000, this allows for ∼ 5% infected at the peak of the epidemic in the low risk population, which corresponds to R 0 ∼ 1.4. By the end of the epidemic, this results in I total ∼ 0.6 within the low-risk population so the immunity in the total population is 45%. Assuming that after the epidemic the transmission rate increases back to R 0 = 2.4, the minimum immune fraction needed for herd immunity is around 60%. Therefore, relaxing social distancing should happen before the end of isolation allowing for a further increase of the immune proportion in the low-risk group to avoid the spread of infections in the high-risk population.
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