Author: Sanyi Tang; Biao Tang; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Fan Xia; Tangjuan Li; Sha He; Pengyu Ren; Xia Wang; Zhihang Peng; Yanni Xiao; Jianhong Wu
Title: Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation Document date: 2020_2_29
ID: aoqyx8mk_58
Snippet: We proposed a stochastic model which can provide an important model framework and methodology for the evaluation of imported cases on local epidemic in the Shaanxi province (and can eventually be adapted for other similar provinces of China). Data analysis reveals that strengthening the public health interventions, tracing imported cases and improving the confirmation rate are effective and timely after January 23 rd 2020. According to the traced.....
Document: We proposed a stochastic model which can provide an important model framework and methodology for the evaluation of imported cases on local epidemic in the Shaanxi province (and can eventually be adapted for other similar provinces of China). Data analysis reveals that strengthening the public health interventions, tracing imported cases and improving the confirmation rate are effective and timely after January 23 rd 2020. According to the traced data shown in Figure 1 , the first imported cases in Shaanxi Province were earlier than January 10, and most of the imported cases were imported to Shaanxi Province before the national travel restrictions were implemented on January 23nd, as shown in Figure 2 . Therefore, the earlier implementation of travel restriction will greatly reduce the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in Shaanxi province, which was not serious.
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