The Effect of Large-Scale Anti-Contagion Policies on the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

Solomon Hsiang; Daniel Allen; Sebastien Annan-Phan; Kendon Bell; Ian Bolliger; Trinetta Chong; Hannah Druckenmiller; Andrew Hultgren; Luna Yue Huang; Emma Krasovich; Peiley Lau; Jaecheol Lee; Esther Rolf; Jeanette Tseng; Tiffany Wu

Some lockdowns occurred during the national Chinese New Year holiday (January 24 -30, 2020) when schools and most workers were on break. On January 27, 2020, China extended the official holiday to February 2, 2020, while many additional provinces delayed resuming work and opening schools for even longer. The Chinese New Year holiday is analogous to containment policies such as school 56 closures and restrictions on non-essential work. We do not specifically estimate the effect of this holiday extension, as most cities were in lockdown during the extended holiday, and a lockdown is a more restrictive containment measure. A lockdown requires all residents to stay home, except for medical reasons or essential work, and only allows one person from each household to go outside once every one to five days (exact policy varied by city).