Author: Solomon Hsiang; Daniel Allen; Sebastien Annan-Phan; Kendon Bell; Ian Bolliger; Trinetta Chong; Hannah Druckenmiller; Andrew Hultgren; Luna Yue Huang; Emma Krasovich; Peiley Lau; Jaecheol Lee; Esther Rolf; Jeanette Tseng; Tiffany Wu
Title: The Effect of Large-Scale Anti-Contagion Policies on the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: gtfx5cp4_76
Snippet: 19, whereas in the classical SIR model this occurs when they are no longer infectious. We adopt the average of these two medians, setting γ = .052. We use medians rather than simple averages because low values for I induce a long right-tail in daily estimates of γ and medians are less vulnerable to this distortion. We then use our empirically based reduced-form estimates ofÄ (both with and without policy) combined with Equations 8-11 to projec.....
Document: 19, whereas in the classical SIR model this occurs when they are no longer infectious. We adopt the average of these two medians, setting γ = .052. We use medians rather than simple averages because low values for I induce a long right-tail in daily estimates of γ and medians are less vulnerable to this distortion. We then use our empirically based reduced-form estimates ofÄ (both with and without policy) combined with Equations 8-11 to project total cumulative cases in all countries, shown in Figure 4 . We simulate infections and cases for each administrative unit in our sample beginning on the first day for which we observe 10 or more cases (for that unit) using a time-step of 4 hours. We estimate uncertainty by resampling from the estimated variance-covariance matrix of all parameters. [5] WHO novel coronavirus (COVID-19) situation. https://experience.arcgis.com/ experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd. Accessed: 2020-03-19.
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