The Effect of Large-Scale Anti-Contagion Policies on the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

Solomon Hsiang; Daniel Allen; Sebastien Annan-Phan; Kendon Bell; Ian Bolliger; Trinetta Chong; Hannah Druckenmiller; Andrew Hultgren; Luna Yue Huang; Emma Krasovich; Peiley Lau; Jaecheol Lee; Esther Rolf; Jeanette Tseng; Tiffany Wu

The first major outbreak in Iran was connected to a major Shia pilgrimage in the city of Qom that brought Shiite pilgrims from Iran and throughout the Middle East, where they came to kiss the Fatima Masumeh shrine. It is possible that the disease was brought to Qom by a merchant traveling from Wuhan, China. In addition, it is believed that the Iranian government knew of the COVID-19 outbreak 102 prior to its February 21, 2020 parliamentary elections, but downplayed the risks associated with the disease as not to suppress voter turnout (given concerns that a low turnout would reflect poorly on its legitimacy). The disease, initially centered in Qom and neighboring Tehran, spread rapidly 103 throughout the country.