Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves

Li, Ruiyun; Chen, Bin; Zhang, Tao; Ren, Zhehao; Song, Yimeng; Xiao, Yixiong; Hou, Lin; Cai, Jun; Xu, Bo; Li, Miao; Chan, Karen Kie Yan; Tu, Ying; Yang, Mu; Yang, Jing; Liu, Zhaoyang; Shen, Chong; Wang, Che; Xu, Lei; Liu, Qiyong; Bao, Shuming; Zhang, Jianqin; Bi, Yuhai; Bai, Yuqi; Deng, Ke; Zhang, Wusheng; Huang, Wenyu; Whittington, Jason D.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Guan, Dabo; Gong, Peng; Xu, Bing

Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.