Understanding Covid-19 Transmission: The Effect of Temperature and Health Behavior on Transmission Rates

Ozyigit, Ahmet

BACKGROUND: Covid-19 pandemic is an uncharted territory for the world’s population. Countries are seeing measures they would have never considered under democratic governance in an attempt to contain case numbers. The role of outside air temperatures have been implicated as a potential factor involved in disease transmission. However, to this date, there has been no clear evidence to suggest either way. Along with temperatures, infection control and protection measures as well as how well people adopt these measures are likely to play a role in disease transmission and case growth rates seen across countries. METHODS: The current study uses panel data estimation for the original EU-15 countries in an attempt to explain the role of outside air temperatures, health behavior and government-imposed containment measures on Covid-19 transmission rates. RESULTS: The preliminary evidence suggests that containment measures are highly effective in slowing down the spread of Covid-19. Years of education also appears to have a small but negative association with disease transmission rates suggesting that populations with higher educational attainments may be doing a better job of self-protection. Temperature appears to have a very small, but statistically significant impact on the viral transmission rate where a 1 degree Celsius increase in temperatures is estimated to reduce Covid-19 transmission by 0.9 percent. CONCLUSION: Results are robust and clear. Temperature plays a small but significant role on Covid-19 transmission rates. However, it is quite possible that we may not have yet reached temperatures which may exert more pronounced effects on viral activity. Further research is warranted when more data becomes available, especially covering the months of July and August.