The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

Nicholas G Davies; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Amy Gimma; W. John Edmunds

As well as single 12-week measures, during the first half of March 2020 we also analysed the impact of longer-term and repeated interventions. On March 16th 2020, our group was advised that, supported by the results of modelling analyses from multiple sources (including our preliminary projections), a package of intensive interventions would be put in place, including a significant programme of social distancing, with a particular impact on leisure activities; workers being asked to work from home where possible; shielding of both elderly (70+) individuals and people in high-risk-groups of all ages; school closures; and self-isolation of symptomatic individuals. With these more concrete proposals, we updated our model to estimate the likely impact of the proposed strategy. We projected that the intensive interventions being proposed had the potential to delay the peak of the epidemic by 11 . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.