Estimating the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran using epidemic modeling

Sahafizadeh, Ebrahim; Sartoli, Samaneh

Background: As reported by Iranian governments, the first cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections confirmed in Qom, Iran on February 19, 2020 (30 Bahman 1398). The number of identified cases afterward increased rapidly and the novel coronavirus spread to all provinces of the country. This study aimed to fit an epidemic model to the reported cases data to estimate the basic reproduction number (R_0) of COVID-19 in Iran. Methods: We used data from February 21, 2020, to April 21, 2020, on the number of cases reported by Iranian governments and we employed the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) epidemic spreading model to fit the transmission model to the reported cases data by tuning the parameters in order to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran. Results: The value of reproduction number was estimated 4.86 in the first week and 4.5 in the second week. it decreased from 4.29 to 2.37 in the next four weeks. At the seventh week of the outbreak the reproduction number was reduced below 1. Conclusions: The results indicate that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 was significantly larger than one in the early stages of the outbreak. However, implementing social distancing and preventing travelling on Nowruz (Persian New Year) effectively reduced the reproduction number. Although the results indicate that reproduction number is below one, it is necessary to continue social distancing and control travelling to prevent causing a second wave of outbreak.