Author: Matteo Chinazzi; Jessica T. Davis; Marco Ajelli; Corrado Gioannini; Maria Litvinova; Stefano Merler; Ana Pastore y Piontti; Luca Rossi; Kaiyuan Sun; Cécile Viboud; Xinyue Xiong; Hongjie Yu; M. Elizabeth Halloran; Ira M. Longini; Alessandro Vespignani
Title: The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: f87h5qh6_11
Snippet: other possible location. This risk depends on the travel flow from cities in Mainland China to other countries and the disease prevalence in those cities. It is also worth remarking that our traffic flows are origin destination data that do not depend on traveling routes, and are a proxy for the actual mobility demand across cities. In Fig. 3 we provide a visualization of how each one of the top cities in China contribute to the relative risk of .....
Document: other possible location. This risk depends on the travel flow from cities in Mainland China to other countries and the disease prevalence in those cities. It is also worth remarking that our traffic flows are origin destination data that do not depend on traveling routes, and are a proxy for the actual mobility demand across cities. In Fig. 3 we provide a visualization of how each one of the top cities in China contribute to the relative risk of the top 20 countries at risk of importation for the dates before and after the travel ban in Wuhan was in effect. In particular, before the travel ban 84% of the internationally imported cases originated from Wuhan; while after the travel ban, the top 10 contributors to the relative risk are needed to account for at least ∼ 80% of the internationally imported cases where the top three contributors are: Shanghai (27.85%), Beijing (14.28%), and Shenzhen (13.68%). In terms of relative risk of importation, the countries at higher risk of importation after the implementation of the Wuhan travel ban are: Japan (11.01% pre-travel ban, 13.97% post-travel ban), Thailand (22.89% pre-travel ban, 12.01% post-travel ban), Republic of Korea (7.48% pre-travel ban, 11.58% post-travel ban), Taiwan (9.32% pre-travel ban, 9.88% post-travel ban), and USA (4.66% pre-travel ban, 5.91% post-travel ban).
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