Reductions in mortality resulting from COVID-19 quarantine measures in China

Shen, Junjie; Wang, Congju; Dong, Chen; Tang, Zaixiang; Sun, Hongpeng

BACKGROUND: To explore the impact of quarantine measures on the cause of death. METHODS: We use time series analysis with the data from death cause surveillance database of Suzhou from January 2017 to December 2019 to estimate the expected deaths from January to June 2020 and compare these expected deaths with the reported numbers of deaths. RESULTS: After the implementation of epidemic prevention measures in Suzhou in the first 3 months, overall number of all-cause deaths declined for 5.36, 7.54 and 7.02% compared with predicted numbers. The number of deaths from respiratory causes and traffic accidents declined shapely by 30.1 and 26.9%, totally. When quarantine measures were released (April–June), however, the observed numbers of total deaths exceeded the predicted deaths. People aged over 70 accounted for 91.6% of declined death number in respiratory causes and people aged over 60 accounted for 68.0% of declined death number in traffic accidents. Women over the age of 80 benefited the most from respiratory prevention (accounts for 41% of all reductions), whereas women aged over 60 benefited the most from traffic control (44%). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the whole population benefited from the epidemic prevention measures especially elderly females. This study is a useful supplement to encourage the government to develop regular preventive measures under the era of normalized epidemic.