The effects of border control and quarantine measures on global spread of COVID-19

M. Pear Hossain; Alvin Junus; Xiaolin Zhu; Pengfei Jia; Tzai-Hung Wen; Dirk Pfeiffer; Hsiang-Yu Yuan

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035261 doi: medRxiv preprint q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q ν = 8 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 0 1 J a n 0 3 J a n 0 5 J a n 0 7 J a n 0 9 J a n 1 1 J a n 1 3 J a n 1 5 J a n 1 7 J a n 1 9 J a n 2 1 J a n 2 3 J a n 2 5 J a n 2 7 J a n 2 9 J a n Date Cumulative number of secondary cases generated by the imported cases B e ij in g S h a n g h a i G u a n g z h o u C h e n g d u K u n m in g X ia m e n S h e n z h e n N a n n in g Q in g d a o S h e n y a n g City Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London [22] , to evaluate the arrival times of outbreak 231 emergence among the top 10 visiting cities. Under these scenarios, following the suggestion from a recent 232 study [23] , we considered the initial infected number as 1000 on 31 December.