Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 containment strategies with considerations for limited medical resources

Brydon Eastman; Cameron Meaney; Michelle Przedborski; Mohammad Kohandel

Interestingly, the total number of deaths at two years after the start of social distancing, i.e. at 18 months after social distancing is stopped, was found to be less sensitive to the social distancing policy, as indicated by Figure 4 . In other words, the total number of deaths over the two year period was predicted to be approximately the same, regardless of the social distancing policy. However, by flattening the infection curve, social distancing leads to a gradual accumulation in the death toll, reducing the strain on the heath care system. Importantly, inspection of Figure 4 reveals that at the two-year mark, strict social distancing policies with 80% adherence were predicted to lead to a death toll that is most similar to the case of no 5 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.