Author: Ashleigh Tuite; David N Fisman; Amy L Greer
Title: Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission and mitigation strategies in the population of Ontario, Canada Document date: 2020_3_26
ID: e4pr78n0_32
Snippet: We also explored dynamic interventions that were turned on and off in response to the current state of the epidemic. Dynamic interventions were projected to be effective for reducing the proportion of the population infected at the end of the two-year period, with potentially shorter durations of social distancing than the fixed duration approach (Figure 4) . For example, when implemented dynamically, 13 months of social distancing, cycled on and.....
Document: We also explored dynamic interventions that were turned on and off in response to the current state of the epidemic. Dynamic interventions were projected to be effective for reducing the proportion of the population infected at the end of the two-year period, with potentially shorter durations of social distancing than the fixed duration approach (Figure 4) . For example, when implemented dynamically, 13 months of social distancing, cycled on and off, reduced the mean overall attack rate to 2%. For the social distancing alone and combination intervention scenarios, we observed atypical epidemic curves, with the number of cases increasing and decreasing repeatedly over time. In these scenarios, the median number of cases in ICU was reduced below current estimates of Ontario's ICU capacity.
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