Author: Alastair D Jamieson-Lane; Eric Cytrnbaum
Title: The Effectiveness of Targeted Quarantine for Minimising Impact of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_4_3
ID: jnz5by5w_1
Snippet: COVID-19, initially observed/detected in Hubei province of China during December 2019, has since spread to all but a handful countries, causing (as of the time of writing) an estimated 855,000 infections and 42,000 deaths ( [8] , March 31st). COVID-19 has a basic reproductive number, R 0 , currently estimated in the region of 2.5 -3 [5] . Social distance and general quarantine measures can reduce R 0 temporarily, but not permanently. For R 0 = 3,.....
Document: COVID-19, initially observed/detected in Hubei province of China during December 2019, has since spread to all but a handful countries, causing (as of the time of writing) an estimated 855,000 infections and 42,000 deaths ( [8] , March 31st). COVID-19 has a basic reproductive number, R 0 , currently estimated in the region of 2.5 -3 [5] . Social distance and general quarantine measures can reduce R 0 temporarily, but not permanently. For R 0 = 3, left unchecked COVID-19 can be expected to infect more than 90% of the population, with 30% of the population infected at the epidemic peak. Even with significant quarantine measures in place the population will not reach "herd immunity" to this virus until 2/3 of the population has gained resistance-either through vaccination, or infection and subsequent recovery.
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