The effects of border control and quarantine measures on global spread of COVID-19

M. Pear Hossain; Alvin Junus; Xiaolin Zhu; Pengfei Jia; Tzai-Hung Wen; Dirk Pfeiffer; Hsiang-Yu Yuan

For each of the top ten cities, the arrival time at which the cumulative number of secondary cases larger than the 237 critical threshold was determined (supplementary Table S1 ). Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou had the shortest 238 required time periods. However, the arrival times of outbreak emergence in the above cities were between 239 31-34 days, corresponding to the end of January and the early of February, which were about more than 10 days 240 later comparing to the actual reported data (supplementary Table S1 ). The mean arrival time of the top 10 241 visiting cities was 39 days, which was 21 days later than R 0 = 2.92. With R 0 = 1.68, the mean arrival time 242 was 26.3 days. Given the reporting delay was about 10 days, we found that R 0 = 2.92 with latent period 5.2 243 days gave a better prediction compared to other low R 0 or long latent period settings. 244 15 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.