Mathematical Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics. A Case Study with Nigeria

Benedict, A. C.; Emmanuel, O.; Tenuche, B.; William-Denteh, W.

Abstract: In this article, we formulated a mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease and we introduced quarantined and isolated compartments. The next generation matrix method was adopted to compute the basic reproduction number in order to assess the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 deadly disease. Stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium is investigated based on the basic reproduction number and the result shows that it is locally and asymptotically stable for less than 1. Numerical calculation of the basic reproduction number revealed that which means that the disease can be eradicated from Nigeria. The study shows that isolation, quarantine and other government policies like social distancing and lockdown are the best approaches to control the pernicious nature of COVID-19 pandemic. Key words: mathematical model, basic reproduction number, isolation, quarantine, COVID-19, computer simulation