Author: Hao Xiong; Huili Yan
Title: Simulating the infected population and spread trend of 2019-nCov under different policy by EIR model Document date: 2020_2_12
ID: er3zmcz2_40
Snippet: Simulating result also tells that the quarantined rate, which present the degree of the prevention measures, has great effect on the peak number and duration of the epidemic spreading. Only the quarantined rate is higher than 80%, the epidemic spreading could be reduced drastically and the identified population would be less than 5000 in the end of March 2020. Even at the threshold degree, when the quarantined rate is 63%, the infected population.....
Document: Simulating result also tells that the quarantined rate, which present the degree of the prevention measures, has great effect on the peak number and duration of the epidemic spreading. Only the quarantined rate is higher than 80%, the epidemic spreading could be reduced drastically and the identified population would be less than 5000 in the end of March 2020. Even at the threshold degree, when the quarantined rate is 63%, the infected population would up to a peak number 115022 and keep at that number for ever unless more strict prevention measures are taken. If the quarantined rate is less than 63% the epidemic spreading of 2019-nCoV will never be eliminated and the infected population would still keep increasing.
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