Selected article for: "cumulative case and final size"

Author: Kiesha Prem; Yang Liu; Tim Russell; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Nicholas Davies; Mark Jit; Petra Klepac
Title: The effect of control strategies that reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China
  • Document date: 2020_3_12
  • ID: fn9b7adi_16
    Snippet: Our simulations show that the control measures aimed at reducing the social mixing in the population can be effective in reducing the magnitude of the peak of the outbreak. We presented the median cumulative incidence (Fig 4A) , incident case per day ( Fig 4B) and agespecific incidence per day (Fig 4C-G) of the 200 simulated outbreaks. The 25 th and 75 th percentile outbreaks are represented by the shaded area in the cumulative incidence. The int.....
    Document: Our simulations show that the control measures aimed at reducing the social mixing in the population can be effective in reducing the magnitude of the peak of the outbreak. We presented the median cumulative incidence (Fig 4A) , incident case per day ( Fig 4B) and agespecific incidence per day (Fig 4C-G) of the 200 simulated outbreaks. The 25 th and 75 th percentile outbreaks are represented by the shaded area in the cumulative incidence. The intense control measures of prolonged school closure and work holidays reduced the final size ( Fig 4A) and peak incidence, while also delaying the peak of the outbreak (Fig 4B) . Our model suggests that the effects of these social distancing strategies vary across age categories, the reduction in incidence is highest among school children and older individuals and lowest among working-aged adults (Fig 4C-G and Fig 5) .

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