Meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence in 190 countries: an observational study

Guo, Cui; Bo, Yacong; Lin, Changqing; Li, Hao Bi; Zeng, Yiqian; Zhang, Yumiao; Hossain, Md Shakhaoat; Chan, Jimmy W.M.; Yeung, David W.; Kwok, Kin on; Wong, Samuel Y.S.; Lau, Alexis K.H.; Lao, Xiang Qian

Novel corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in December 2019, has become a pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence and mortality worldwide. This study included 1,908,197 confirmed cases of and 119,257 deaths from COVID-19 from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April, 2020. We used a distributed lag non-linear model with city-/country-level random intercept to investigate the associations between COVID19 incidence and daily temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. A series of confounders were considered in the analysis including demographics, socioeconomics, geographic locations, and political strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the associations. The COVID-19 incidence showed a stronger association with temperature than with relative humidity or wind speed. An inverse association was identified between the COVID-19 incidence and temperature. The corresponding 14-day cumulative relative risk was 1.28 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20–1.36] at 5°C, and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65–0.86) at 22°C with reference to the risk at 11°C. An inverse J-shaped association was observed between relative humidity and the COVID-19 incidence, with the highest risk at 72%. A higher wind speed was associated with a generally lower incidence of COVID-19, although the associations were weak. Sensitivity analyses generally yielded similar results. The COVID-19 incidence decreased with the increase of temperature. Our study suggests that the spread of COVID-19 may slow during summer but may increase during winter.