Prognostic factors in Spanish COVID-19 patients: A case series from Barcelona

Sisó-Almirall, Antoni; Kostov, Belchin; Mas-Heredia, Minerva; Vilanova-Rotllan, Sergi; Sequeira-Aymar, Ethel; Sans-Corrales, Mireia; Sant-Arderiu, Elisenda; Cayuelas-Redondo, Laia; Martínez-Pérez, Angela; García-Plana, Noemí; Anguita-Guimet, August; Benavent-Àreu, Jaume

BACKGROUND: In addition to the lack of COVID-19 diagnostic tests for the whole Spanish population, the current strategy is to identify the disease early to limit contagion in the community. AIM: To determine clinical factors of a poor prognosis in patients with COVID-19 infection. DESIGN AND SETTING: Descriptive, observational, retrospective study in three primary healthcare centres with an assigned population of 100,000. METHOD: Examination of the medical records of patients with COVID-19 infections confirmed by polymerase chain reaction. Logistic multivariate regression models adjusted for age and sex were constructed to analyse independent predictive factors associated with death, ICU admission and hospitalization. RESULTS: We included 322 patients (mean age 56.7 years, 50% female, 115 (35.7%) aged ≥ 65 years): 123 (38.2) were health workers (doctors, nurses, auxiliaries). Predictors of ICU admission or death were greater age (OR = 1.05; 95%CI = 1.03 to 1.07), male sex (OR = 2.94; 95%CI = 1.55 to 5.82), autoimmune disease (OR = 2.82; 95%CI = 1.00 to 7.84), bilateral pulmonary infiltrates (OR = 2.86; 95%CI = 1.41 to 6.13), elevated lactate-dehydrogenase (OR = 2.85; 95%CI = 1.28 to 6.90), elevated D-dimer (OR = 2.85; 95%CI = 1.22 to 6.98) and elevated C-reactive protein (OR = 2.38; 95%CI = 1.22 to 4.68). Myalgia or arthralgia (OR = 0.31; 95%CI = 0.12 to 0.70) was protective factor against ICU admission and death. Predictors of hospitalization were chills (OR = 5.66; 95%CI = 1.68 to 23.49), fever (OR = 3.33; 95%CI = 1.89 to 5.96), dyspnoea (OR = 2.92; 95%CI = 1.62 to 5.42), depression (OR = 6.06; 95%CI = 1.54 to 40.42), lymphopenia (OR = 3.48; 95%CI = 1.67 to 7.40) and elevated C-reactive protein (OR = 3.27; 95%CI = 1.59 to 7.18). Anosmia (OR = 0.42; 95%CI = 0.19 to 0.90) was the only significant protective factor for hospitalization after adjusting for age and sex. CONCLUSION: Determining the clinical, biological and radiological characteristics of patients with suspected COVID-19 infection will be key to early treatment and isolation and the tracing of contacts.