Author: DeWitt, M. E.
Title: Rapid Impact Analysis of B 1.1.7 Variant on the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in North Carolina Cord-id: isj7t9ue Document date: 2021_2_9
ID: isj7t9ue
Snippet: Several cases of the B1.1.7 variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus were identified in North Carolina first on January 23, 2021 in Mecklenburg County and later in Guilford County on January 28, 2021. This variant has been associated with higher levels of transmissibility. Using the nowcasted reproduction numbers, a stochastic discrete compartmental model was fit with the current vaccination rates and B1.1.7 transmissibility to estimate the impact on the effective reproduction number. We found that the e
Document: Several cases of the B1.1.7 variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus were identified in North Carolina first on January 23, 2021 in Mecklenburg County and later in Guilford County on January 28, 2021. This variant has been associated with higher levels of transmissibility. Using the nowcasted reproduction numbers, a stochastic discrete compartmental model was fit with the current vaccination rates and B1.1.7 transmissibility to estimate the impact on the effective reproduction number. We found that the effective reproduction number for North Carolina and Guilford County may exceed one, indicating a return to accelerating spread of infection in April as the proportion of B1.1.7 increases. Existing non-pharmaceutical interventions will need to remain in effect through the spring.
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