Information Search and Financial Markets under COVID-19

Ahundjanov, Behzod B.; Akhundjanov, Sherzod B.; Okhunjanov, Botir B.

The discovery and sudden spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) exposed individuals to a great uncertainty about the potential health and economic ramifications of the virus, which triggered a surge in demand for information about COVID-19. To understand financial market implications of individuals’ behavior upon such uncertainty, we explore the relationship between Google search queries related to COVID-19—information search that reflects one’s level of concern or risk perception—and the performance of major financial indices. The empirical analysis based on the Bayesian inference of a structural vector autoregressive model shows that one unit increase in the popularity of COVID-19-related global search queries, after controlling for COVID-19 cases, results in [Formula: see text] – [Formula: see text] % of a cumulative decline in global financial indices after one day and [Formula: see text] – [Formula: see text] % of a cumulative decline after one week.