Author: Lionel Roques; Etienne Klein; Julien Papaix; Samuel Soubeyrand
Title: Mechanistic-statistical SIR modelling for early estimation of the actual number of cases and mortality rate from COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: dqg8fkca_33
Snippet: On the IFR and the number of infected cases. The actual number of infected individuals in France is probably much higher than the observations (we find here a factor ×8), which leads at a lower mortality rate than that calculated on the basis of the observed cases: we found here an IFR of 0.5% based on hospital death counting data, to be compared with a case fatality rate (CFR, number of deaths over number of diagnosed cases) of 2% on March 17. .....
Document: On the IFR and the number of infected cases. The actual number of infected individuals in France is probably much higher than the observations (we find here a factor ×8), which leads at a lower mortality rate than that calculated on the basis of the observed cases: we found here an IFR of 0.5% based on hospital death counting data, to be compared with a case fatality rate (CFR, number of deaths over number of diagnosed cases) of 2% on March 17. Adjusting for the number of deaths in the nursing homes, we obtained an IFR of 0.8%. These values for the IFR are consistent with the findings of [2] (0.66% in China) and [3] (0.9% in the UK). The value of 1.3% estimated on the Diamond Princess cruise ship [4] falls above the top end of our 95% CI. This reflects the age distribution on the ship, which was skewed towards older individuals (mean age: 58 years), among whom the IFR is higher [3, 4] .
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