The Epidemiological Implications of Incarceration Dynamics in Jails for Community, Corrections Officer, and Incarcerated Population Risks from COVID-19

Eric Lofgren; Kristian Lum; Aaron Horowitz; Brooke Madubuowu; Nina Fefferman

Pairing increased arrest deferral with a more rapid release of persons who were 233 already incarcerated enhanced the impact of those interventions, reducing infections, 234 hospitalizations and deaths among the incarcerated -as well as the staff of the jails -235 as the rate of release increased (Fig 5) . The one exception to this was the outcomes in 236 the wider community, which, when paired with less aggressive arrest deferral scenarios, 237 experienced a slight increase in the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths at 238 lower levels of accelerated release schedules. This phenomenon peaks at a release rate 1.5 239 times faster than the default release rate, with a 0.3% increase in community infections. 240 At rates faster than this, the effect is considerably reduced, with a release rate twice as 241 fast as the default release rate resulting in a 0.02% increase in community infections.