Author: Alex James; Shaun C Hendy; Michael J Plank; Nicholas Steyn
Title: Suppression and Mitigation Strategies for Control of COVID-19 in New Zealand Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: gc5ieskk_1
Snippet: The COVID-19 outbreak originated in Wuhan China in November 2019 before spreading globally to become a pandemic in March 2020. The human population currently lacks immunity to COVID-19, a viral zoonotic disease with a case fatality rate (CFR) of the order of 1%. This means that without controls there is likely to be widespread infection, which may overwhelm health care systems and lead to large numbers of deaths. In this study we examined potenti.....
Document: The COVID-19 outbreak originated in Wuhan China in November 2019 before spreading globally to become a pandemic in March 2020. The human population currently lacks immunity to COVID-19, a viral zoonotic disease with a case fatality rate (CFR) of the order of 1%. This means that without controls there is likely to be widespread infection, which may overwhelm health care systems and lead to large numbers of deaths. In this study we examined potential control scenarios generated by a standard mathematical modelling approach to epidemic spread to consider the impacts on the progression of the disease in New Zealand. Our model is parameterised for the spread of COVID-19 through the New Zealand population (Wilson, 2020) with intervention strategies calibrated from a recent study of COVID-19 spread through the US and UK (Fergusson, 2020). Using the model we examine a range of possible interventions and their effect on the healthcare system and population fatality rate.
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