Selected article for: "hospital capacity and total number"
Author: Alex James; Shaun C Hendy; Michael J Plank; Nicholas Steyn
Title: Suppression and Mitigation Strategies for Control of COVID-19 in New Zealand
  • Document date: 2020_3_30
    • ID: gc5ieskk_7
    Snippet: We measured hospital capacity in terms of the number of cases in ICU. We assumed that 5% of infections required hospitalisation, and of these 25% required ICU, meaning that overall 1.25% of all infections require ICU. These values are taken from Wilson et al (2020) . These hospitalisation and ICU rates are substantially lower than estimates from CDC (2020) (see Table 1 ). However the latter could be biased by low detection rates in the US. In 200.....
    Document: We measured hospital capacity in terms of the number of cases in ICU. We assumed that 5% of infections required hospitalisation, and of these 25% required ICU, meaning that overall 1.25% of all infections require ICU. These values are taken from Wilson et al (2020) . These hospitalisation and ICU rates are substantially lower than estimates from CDC (2020) (see Table 1 ). However the latter could be biased by low detection rates in the US. In 2001, New Zealand had approximately 6 ICU beds per 100,000 people (Ministry of Health, 2005) . We used a higher number of 10 ICU beds per 100,000 people here, to allow for conversion of other hospital facilities, for example from cancelling elective surgery, to temporary ICU beds. This gives a total of 500 ICU beds and so ICU capacity is reached when the total number of current infections reaches 40,000 (equivalent I = 0.8% of the population). We also investigated the consequences of having higher/lower ICU capacity.

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