Author: Nicholas G Davies; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Amy Gimma; W. John Edmunds
Title: The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: g0pxqqga_38
Snippet: Using an age-structured transmission dynamic model, we explored different scenarios for COVID-19 transmission and control in the UK. We found that moderate interventions lasting for 12 weeks, such as school closures, self-isolation or shielding of elderly groups, would likely not have been sufficient to control the epidemic and to avoid far exceeding available ICU capacity, even when these measures were used in combination. However, we estimated .....
Document: Using an age-structured transmission dynamic model, we explored different scenarios for COVID-19 transmission and control in the UK. We found that moderate interventions lasting for 12 weeks, such as school closures, self-isolation or shielding of elderly groups, would likely not have been sufficient to control the epidemic and to avoid far exceeding available ICU capacity, even when these measures were used in combination. However, we estimated that a scenario in which more intense lockdown measures were implemented for shorter periods may be able to keep projected case numbers at a level that would not overwhelm the health system.
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