Selected article for: "case fatality and increase case"
Author: Nicholas G Davies; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Amy Gimma; W. John Edmunds
Title: The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study
  • Document date: 2020_4_6
    • ID: g0pxqqga_8
    Snippet: Simulations of an unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic resulted in a median 24 million (95% prediction interval: 16-30 million) clinical cases in the UK up to December 2021 ( Fig. 2 ; Table 4 ). Under this scenario, 85% of the population (68-96%) would be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with roughly 40% of those infected showing clinical symptoms. In turn, this would result in a projected 370 thousand (250-470 thousand) deaths directly attributable to COVID-19,.....
    Document: Simulations of an unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic resulted in a median 24 million (95% prediction interval: 16-30 million) clinical cases in the UK up to December 2021 ( Fig. 2 ; Table 4 ). Under this scenario, 85% of the population (68-96%) would be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with roughly 40% of those infected showing clinical symptoms. In turn, this would result in a projected 370 thousand (250-470 thousand) deaths directly attributable to COVID-19, without accounting for any potential increase in the case fatality ratio caused by exceeding hospital capacity. The projected peak number of ICU beds required was 220 thousand (120-360 thousand). This is roughly 25-80 times ICU capacity in the UK, which we tallied at 4,562 beds [14] [15] [16] [17] in the absence of any efforts to further expand capacity.

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