Selected article for: "asymptomatic transmission and population proportion"
Author: James H. Fowler; Seth J. Hill; Nick Obradovich; Remy Levin
Title: The Effect of Stay-at-Home Orders on COVID-19 Infections in the United States
  • Document date: 2020_4_17
    • ID: 4s8unfnk_33
    Snippet: Our model of the disease is derived from the classic SIR model to allow for an empirical strategy that estimates causal effects of stay-at-home interventions. Using this model, however, requires us to make strong assumptions. For example, we must assume the number of days that infected individuals are contagious even though the scientific community is currently unsure about the precise distribution of this parameter. We account for this uncertain.....
    Document: Our model of the disease is derived from the classic SIR model to allow for an empirical strategy that estimates causal effects of stay-at-home interventions. Using this model, however, requires us to make strong assumptions. For example, we must assume the number of days that infected individuals are contagious even though the scientific community is currently unsure about the precise distribution of this parameter. We account for this uncertainty by ensuring our results are robust to different assumed values, but it is still possible that the true value falls outside the range we show here. We also assume that the proportion of the population susceptible to the disease is constant, at 1, over space and time. If this assumption is strongly violated it might influence our estimates since they are linearly related to a parameter that is multiplied by that value. At this stage in the disease we believe high susceptibility is a reasonable assumption, but low rates of testing coupled with pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission suggest it is possible that the proportion susceptible is lower than is currently indicated by the data.

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