The Effect of Stay-at-Home Orders on COVID-19 Infections in the United States

James H. Fowler; Seth J. Hill; Nick Obradovich; Remy Levin

Would a hypothetical reduction in infections from an early nationwide stay-at-home order have limited fatalities? We do not know. Perhaps such an order would simply have delayed the timing of the pandemic. We do know, however, that slowing the initial rate of growth in infections helps hospital systems to better figure out how to provide supportive care for COVID-19, enables the implementation of better testing and tracing procedures, and provides time for clinical trials to produce results regarding immunization and treatment. Perhaps most importantly, spreading out infections over more time can help prevent the number of total cases requiring hospitalization from spiking above existing hospital capacity, which is relatively fixed in the short-run. 25 Thus, it seems reasonable to assume that death rates seen in early cases might be higher than if earlier stay-at-home orders had moved these infections later in time. If this is the case, then even a moderate delay in infections could produce a significant decrease in total fatalities from the disease.